World War Three 1946 - Book Three - The Red White & Blue

World War Three 1946 - Book Three - The Red White & Blue
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Thursday, January 7, 2016

Book Two Timeline



Timeline for Book 2 – The Red Sky – The Second Battle of Britain

Once again a few brave men would be asked to do the impossible over the skies of Great Britain. This time the enemy was not lead by a buffoon in the form of Herman Goring. The Red Air Force VVS was led by a master of strategy in the form of one Alexander Alexandrovich Novikov, the man who ruled the skies over Mother Russia, Manchuria, East Germany and now most of Europe.

Sept. 1946 - Throughout the month of September the Soviet VVS feints and simulated massive air attacks on the Isles of Great Britain.

Sept. 1st, 1946 - The US Strategic Air Command or SAC, is created with Curtis LeMay named Commander.

Sept. 15th, 1946 - From two different direction massive air raids consisting of 2056 Tu2s, Lag 7s, Yak 9DDs approach the southern and northeast coast of the British Isles. The RAF is unsure of the Soviet targets. The targets are the “bone yards” and maintenance facilities of the British. The unexpected choice of targets and the effectiveness of the raids leave the RAF with very few serviceable fighter aircraft and few repair facilities.

Sept. 14th, 1946 - Scandinavia falls to a massive airborne assault.

Sept. 25th - The Second Battle of Britain begins. The VVS suffers from none of the constraints that the Luftwaffe encountered.

1. Using external drop tanks, the VVS planes have the range to hit every target in the British Isles.

2. They outnumber the RAF by five to one.

3. The RAF has very few replacement aircraft.

4. The Soviet spy network is in full play. There is no lack of intelligence on the exact location of targets and the effects of their previous raids on those targets.

5. The Soviets have used captured US jammers to spoof the vaunted “proximity or VT fuse”. During the first critical raids the RAF airbases are virtually defenseless.

The effects are almost immediate with the RAF on the losing end of the battle.

Within weeks the VVS is roaming freely over the British Isles and ravaging the transportation systems and storage depots of the RAF. Britain is virtually defenseless from air attack.

Sept. 30th, 1946 - The Soviets publish, in Pravda, an article and picture of what appears to be an intact atomic bomb from the Leningrad raid. The crew and the Silverplate B-29 appear to be in the background. The inference is that the crew and bomb have defected to the Communist cause.

Oct. 2nd - Four atomic bombs are dropped on the oil production facilities of the USSR. The B-29s were based in Egypt with their fighter escorts flying from bases in Turkey. These four bombs are the last of the atomic bombs in existence.

Oct. 18th, 1946 - William Perl, Joel Barr and Alfred Sarant have all defected to the USSR and bring with them unimaginable intelligence on American and British weapons systems.

Oct. 22nd, 1946 - The fast response by the VVS and the addition of the Stalin’s Fire SAMs start to deplete the B-29s of SAC.



The Soviets attention is diverted, and the Second Battle of Britain and the Battle for Iberia are severely curtailed. Stalin and the Stavka prepare for an invasion of Turkey, Iraq, the oil fields of Kuwait and the Levant. Their ultimate goal is to capture Egypt and Gibraltar.

***Spoiler Alert ***





Timeline for World War Three 1946

Book One - The Red Tide - Stalin Strikes First

May 2nd, 1895 - Sergo Peshkova is born

Aug 3rd, 1943 - Sergo attends a party where he meets Stalin and their unusual relationship begins

Aug 13th, 1943 - Sergo becomes an advisor to Joseph Stalin specializing in aerospace

Nov 24th, 1943 - Sergo is given full control of Soviet aerospace research and development.

Jan 4th, 1944 - Research on the German Wasserfal Ground to Air missile and the X4 air to air missile becomes a top priority under Sergo’s leadership using stolen materials from Peenemunde

Aug 1944 - Three USAAF Superfortress B-29 bombers fall into the possession of the USSR

Dec, 18, 1945 - 17 of the 22 members of an elite atomic bomb assembly team are killed in a series of seemingly accidental events during the holidays. 15 die in a bus crash. These deaths delay the American Atomic Weapons program for 6 months

May 1st, 1946 - May Day Parade in Berlin and Moscow

May 2nd, 1946 - World War Three begins with a surprise attack by the Red Army consisting of 60 divisions and over 7,000 combat aircraft.

May 11th - NATO is formed.

May 13th, 1946 - The surprise attack is a complete success with 13 out of 22 US, British and French divisions overrun.

July 3rd, 1946 - Denmark surrenders to the forces of the USSR.

July 13th, 1946 - France surrenders to the USSR.

July 13th, 1946 - The Soviet Agent known as Delmar (George Koval) assassinates hundreds of American nuclear scientists using the world’s most deadly substance, Polonium, at conferences in Oak Ridge, TN and Dayton, OH. This cripples the US nuclear program for another 12 months and possibly forever.

July 27th, 1946 - USAAF attempt to drop an atomic bomb on Leningrad. The NKVD and its stable of spies is instrumental in warning the Soviet Red Air Force VVS. With a combination of the new Wasserfal Ground to Air guided Missile and hundreds of fighters the raid is decimated and an atomic bomb is lost in the Baltic Sea.

July 28th, 1946 - The Red Army is stopped temporarily on the Pyrenees Line by a combination of US and Spanish divisions using the rugged terrain of this mountain range located on the border of France and Spain.

Aug 2nd, 1946 - Italy is abandoned by the NATO Allies and all forces are pulled back to Sardinia.

Aug, 15th, 1946 - The Soviet VVS demonstrates its newest aircraft by flying at great heights over the entire British Isles in an attempt to intimidate the British people. This demonstration proves that the entire British Isles can be attack from the air unlike the First Battle of Britain where the Luftwaffe was severely limited in range.

August 17th, 1946 - The Strategic Air Command is formed with Curtis LeMay named as commander.



August 20th, 1946 - The Soviet VVS continues a massive buildup of the Red Air Force on the Channel coast. It appears that a Second Battle of Britain is about to be fought.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Teach a Man to Fish

The Fisherman was out on the lake as always catching the species of trout that only lived in this body of water. The waves were only a couple of inches without any white caps and the sun was shining bright and clear, which was unusual for this time of year. It was about 20 degrees Celsius and just a beautiful fall day to be out fishing. The Fisherman appreciated the weather but he would have been out all day anyway. He was floating on a pristine lake in Armenia, Lake Sevan to be exact, and today he was being disturbed.

Frequently now the capitalist bombers passed over a couple of times a week but they were so high and there was nothing to bomb here, that it was only the noise they made that was out of the ordinary. He had gotten used to them as had the fish he was certain.

He was floating just a mile off the coast from the old monastery when he heard the first of what was to be hundreds of trucks. The monastery had been closed for many decades but the buildings were still upright and strong. The ghosts of the warrior monks who defended the land for centuries keep most away.

These trucks were of a newer model and different make than the few he has seen in his life and they were full of soldiers; soldiers of the Red Army who looked to be on their way to a major battle and not just an excursion into the hinterlands of the USSR. This would be an unusual invasion route into the Turkish lands he mused. I guess if you want to catch an enemy unaware you do the unusual. Yet here they were and he was sure that they would try and catch his fish.

Lake Sevan was 78 km long and 58 wide and he had rowed every inch of it. He had heard that it was 95 meters deep as well placing it as one of the largest lakes in the world and it was located 1900 meters high surrounded by mountains. All in all it was one of the most beautiful places on earth but the Fisherman knew no other so to him it was just home. He fished to live and lived to fish, selling his catch to another who came to him in a powerboat and bought what he could not eat. Most of the time he was paid in kind and that is what he preferred. Salt, thread, cloth, line, hooks, all things he needed to survive and to keep his boat afloat and his small sail patched. He was being taken advantage of by the men in the power boat but he did not care of even knew this was the case.

He probably did not even own the land his shack was on but no one knew who did so by default he did. If you found an empty piece of land, you lived there and it was then it was yours until you died and someone else came along. Men like him did not have families. He did come from a family he recalled but was on his own since the age of 10. A fire or pillaging band of bandits had taken his family as far as he could remember which was not much about that time. A modern clinical diagnosis would be “repressed memory” and be concerned. He just never thought about it and lived to fish instead.

What was happening on shore became annoying as well as alarming. The trucks were disgorging hundreds of soldiers near the Monastery. I suppose it was a natural draw for someone not from the area. That was the annoying part. The alarming part was that other trucks were headed for his hut. Most of what he owned was in the boat with him including all he needed to survive but he remembered he left his good knife, extra fishing line, his winter store of fish and the painting in there. It would set him back a full moons worth of extra fish to replace them by trading with the men in the powerboat and who knew when he would be able to catch enough to replace his winter stores.

The book was where he found it wrapped in cloth and wedged very safely between two boulders. No one would find it and if they did it was not very appealing. That’s partially why he just kept it hidden. He could not read and the few illustrations were of the “Ascending Jesus” and were not very well done in his mind. He had seen a photograph once and was much impressed with that but not with this admittedly old book full of scribbles and squiggly lines and bad hand drawn pictures that didn’t even look as real as the photograph he had seen when the men in the powerboat had shown it to him.

He hated to fish on the ice. He has seen too many fall in when you were too hungry in the spring to take precautions on the thin ice. He had seen too many mistakes made by relatively smart men.

He could only assume that the soldiers were on their way to fight the Turks. There was certainly nothing else to fight here. He did not know who he pitied more, the soldiers who were about to die in a foreign land or himself who would go hungry this winter. Luckily he knew of another hut that he could claim. Its occupant had died the last moon. He had already staked a claim on it using the tried and true methods of the area but it was on the other side and farther away from his favorite fishing spot. He would have to spend twice the amount of energy getting there and back and during the winter the lake did not always freeze all the way over so he might have to go to his other less fertile fishing spots.

He began to curse the soldiers. Maybe if he killed a couple over the next few nights they would leave. No… they would try and hunt him down. They would not succeed but that would make him use up much needed supplies and who knows they just might get in a lucky shot and wound him. He was not afraid of dying but he was afraid of being shot and waiting to die while in pain.

No he would have to bide his time and wait to see what they did or were going to do here. His hope was that they were just passing through on their way to fight the Turk.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Konstantin

Zhukov was intrigued with the idea of invading the Turk, the Ottoman Empire, the former scourge of the south and the peoples who had terrified many generations of Russian children. He was going to avenge the Byzantine empire and once again bring Constantinople into the sphere of civilization once again.

Individually the Turk was a formidable fighter but collectively he was a disaster. He expected to eliminate the Amerikosi airfields that were being used in Turkey to be over-run in as little as 45 days once the assault started. Constantinople’s walls would be no impediment to a modern army as they had been for thousands of years first to keep out the Mongol, then the Turk and finally the west.
The art of war had progressed too far for the old walls to withstand a 122mm shell or a 46 ton tank. The Soviet soldier was the undisputed master of city warfare so he expected little trouble in first by-passing and then eliminating any resistance there. With the Turk no longer in control of the Bosphorus or collectively the Turkish straits and the Black Sea fleet could start to harass the British and Yankee boats that have so far plagued his plans. That Sergo character had promised to unleash his missiles if a worthy target presented itself and he had more conventional weapons ready to fight the B-29, Shooting Star and RAF Meteor. It was some kind of new jet that would bring superiority to the VVS over the skies of the battlefield.

He just wanted the pesky boats gone. He had seen the devastation they had created near Le Havre and now had to take detours to bring his forces to bear on the Turk. He had to stay a good 30 miles from the shore of the various seas in the area for fear of intervention by the naval forces of the imperialist pigs.

The irony of Sergo not using the missiles on the ships was that the guidance system was initially designed to target ships. His fear of an unexploded warhead falling into the hands of NATO was somewhat warranted but not enough to allow the Western navies the unfettered freedom they possessed currently. That would have to be addressed especially when his forces got closer to the Levant and the Suez. Sergo’s missiles would have to be used for what they were designed for.

As he stared at the line of tank transports and train loads of forces crawling along the mountain roads from his command car in his armored train he suddenly turned and his aide quickly came to his side knowing that something was about to occur that meant his life was about to change. He knew his Marshal very well and the twitching of the jaw always meant something significant was about to happen.

Zhukov spoke in the low rumble that was his trademark for beginning an important statement. It forced you to get closer even knowing that the volume and pitch that frequently came would physically force you to take a step back. But that initial beginning made you lean in close knowing what was to come and what was to follow. It was an effective technique that had never failed Zhukov nor failed to frustrate and intimidate his subordinates.

The aide knew by now that the first few sentences were more of a stalling tactic while the Marshal collected his thoughts for verbal communication. Kind of like clearing your throat or a platitude filled welcoming statement about how pleased he was to be in your company. Zhukov did not use platitudes so he unconsciously used the technique he had developed over the many years of commanding men, commanding them to give their very lives for an idea and in sometimes great numbers.

Finally the essence of the order came to the fore and the aide did not need to lean in to hear it.
“Bring Konstantine to me. He is the one who has been working on masking the true nature of the Stalin’s Fire missile’s guidance system.”
“Of course comrade.”

The aide thought to himself, that was not what I expected. What is that old fox up to now? He was never bored in this position. The marshal’s other aide had made it through the war against the Nazis only to be killed by a stray bullet from an unknown source while standing next to Zhukov while he was touring the newly captured city of Berlin. He was in the right or wrong place at the right or wrong time depending on your point of view and had been ordered to step in and be the marshal’s aide. Luckily he was a natural and Zhukov had no complaints that he knew of.

He quickly walked the length of the train and entered what had easily become the most disorganized mess anyone had ever seen that was the command car of the undisputed master of maskirovka. A man no one ever heard of or knew existed.

The master of deception had his back to the door and did not turn around when the compartment was bathed in sunlight and cold air.
“Close the door and what do you want?” He muttered without even turning around. “Marshal Zhukov will see you now comrade. I will lead you to him.”

Konstantin slowly turned and without hesitation or argument and literally dropped what he was working on, thus causing a metallic crashing noise which filled the compartment and immediately started to move towards the front of the train. The aide did not look to see what was dropped but was once again struck by the empty eye sockets and the emaciated face of this master of deception. The man was obviously totally blind yet was able to function at an incredibly high level of proficiency as long as he was in the train or confined area. One tour around any area feeling with his feet and hands and it was ingrained in his memory. Unless something was moved by someone else, he could move with alarming speed that belied his blindness.

Found abandoned on the steps of a hospital in Moscow he was born without eyes and his anophthalmia was very acute. He barely even had eye sockets. Zhukov’s aid had the duty of researching the past of anyone who came in contact with the Marshal. In his research he had found that Konstantin was amazing from birth in his ability to use his other senses to overcome what would be a crippling deformity to others. Possibly his lack of sight made it easier for him to fool others who had relied so heavily on sight. Whatever the cause he was indeed a master of maskirovka and responsible for many of the decisions Zhukov had made in this realm of smoke and mirrors.
As usual Konstantin led the way barely feeling his path. Everyone knew when he was coming and made way by clearing a course through their space for his transverse. You never wanted to be the cause of accidentally inflicting harm on this man.

They reached Marshal Zhukov in less time than it took the aide to originally traverse the length of the train. Konstantin did not stop and all knew that he was not to be stopped. They marched right up to the marshal and then waited to be addressed. The marshal was busy with another matter but immediately stopped the conversation and greeted Konstantin warmly. This always surprised the aide and made him a little jealous. But then again he had never saved Zhukov’s life or the lives of hundreds of thousands of soviet soldiers either. As Zhukov hugged Konstantin
the aide could tell that he was averse to this particular kind of greeting and he thought, maybe that is why Zhukov does this to him.

As usual Zhukov started out speaking in his rumbling bass voice to draw Konstantin in but Konstantin did not fall for the bait as usual. They had been through many a challenge together and knew each other’s ways only too well. Finally the Marshal came to the point after articulating it in his mind.

 “Konstantin old friend, what has been done to mask the true nature of the Stalin’s Fire missile guidance system?”
“Comrade Zhukov, we have done any number of things per Sergo’s orders and a few of our suggestions have been used as well. We have “provided” the NATO intelligence service with a number of opportunities to avail themselves of dummy units. So far they have only retrieved 2 out of twelve presented to them. The rest have gone unnoticed where they have remained so as to not increase suspicion.

Of the two actually reaching the NATO scientific staff both would have appeared to be guided by the German Fritz X system or the FuG 230 system. We are sure the NATO scientists have received and tested these units. We know they are still baffled and are unsure as to why their jamming techniques have not worked so far when they obviously have worked in the past. The only possible flaw in this plan is that it does defy physics so they will eventually discern that it must be a ruse. It has bought us valuable time to strengthen other weapons and strategies.

Zhukov moves to the center of the rail car and crosses his arms.
 “The time is coming where we will need Stalin’s Fire to rain down on NATOs boats. It is coming soon. It will mean the difference between winning the war and defeat. NATO is free to roam the oceans and strike at us where they will. We now have the means to stop this. We now have the weapon we need to sweep the oceans clean of capitalist war machines and fill the void with our own. Mark my words Konstantin the time is coming and coming quickly. We will need Sergo’s acquiescence on this matter in order to convince Comrade Stalin and the STAVKA. Stalin’s Fire must be used and soon and that is where your special talents come in Konstantin. You must come up with the ultimate maskirovka just in case the a warhead falls into NATO’s lap like the enigma machine or the so called Battle of the Beams. We have to make them believe that when the real solution does present itself to them that they reject it out of hand.”
“It is pretty unbelievable in reality so that maybe not as hard as you think. At this point we do not want to even get them thinking down the same path as the real solution. Possibly something like the enigma machine or some rudimentary computation device to throw them once again off the obvious path that they have ignored could be used. We will give them so many clues that they will not know which ones are pertinent.

Sergo is so concerned that they will discover the truth yet he will not tell anyone how to defeat the system he is using. He claims it is very simple but no one else seems to know what he
is thinking and how to effectively counter it. We do have to plan on there being someone in what remains of the capitalist world who can think like Sergo. It would be foolish for us to think otherwise.
So far it has been a common fault of the Amerikosi who seem to think that they have invented everything and no one else can match their accomplishments. It is to our advantage to keep them thinking this way.”

“Da, you are correct Konstantin. We must keep using the power of maskirovka for a few more months until we are totally caught up to the Amerikosi and Limeys. Their sense of superiority is a great advantage to us because it blinds them to the real possibilities of a communist system. It is to our advantage to keep them thinking we are the blunt, dumb instrument of Stalin who only know the hammer and sickle and couldn’t possibly equal them in the sciences. The longer they believe that trope, the longer the time we have to defeat them.

“When we finally are “allowed” to use the system for its original purpose, we will not have to worry about the NATO boats anymore. There is no reason that the system cannot be placed on the German V2 rocket as well. At a distance of 320 km it will far out range those guns that have kept us from the coasts. They will no longer be able to supply islands like Britain or bring their tanks from across the seas. What good will their factories be if they cannot land machines or provide the fuel to run them. If we stop their navies we will stop them from invading the motherland and our new jets will meet them in the skies. We just needed the time to breath after our destruction of the Nazi pigs. We are now ready to once again defend ourselves.

First we have to push the Amerikosi farther away from our oil fields, further away from our homes, further away from our families. Maybe then they will leave us alone. We need to conquer the Turk and then drive them out of the Mediterranean. We need to close both ends of that sea. We need to destroy the Suez Canal and take Gibraltar from the British but first we need to take the airfields from the Turks and expand the perimeter. Then our planes must keep us safe while we rebuild once again.“

Friday, October 17, 2014

One Buck!

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LeMay Chews on it

The room was bright and airy, with an actual plant in the corner. No one knew what kind of plant it was but it really didn’t matter. It might have been the first green and growing thing in a high ranking SAC or possibly the USAAF officers’ quarters ever and LeMay hated it. He also hated the ideas that were being proposed and he as much said so in his diary entries later.

What was being discussed were two things designed to bring the Soviet oil production to its knees. One was to bring in the shorter range B17s and P51s from the USAAF into the bases in Turkey, Crete and Rhodes to beef up SACs capabilities. The arguments were as follows…

1. The need for absolute secrecy was over

a. The atomic bombs had been dropped

b. Their bases were known to the VVS

2. The B17s would bring added resources to the fight

a. More targets attacked daily

b. Greater pressure on the VVS

c. Add destructive capabilities to the fight to shut down the oil facilities and keep them shut.

3. Cause the Red Army to invade Turkey to eliminate these bases thus further drawing them into the trap being set by the US Army.


The other discussion which he really didn’t like was to let the last bomber squadron in the next raid to do some unorthodox formation flying in an attempt to reduce the chances of a missile strike while at the same time keeping the squadron together and able to reform with the larger group when over the target. They were actually going to try and out maneuver a ground to air missile or surface to air missile or SAM as they were quickly being called by the flight crews.

Jimmy Doolittle was behind this corker of an idea and so it had to be considered carefully before he rejected it. At this point all they were asking for was a demonstration or a try out. Let the last squadron in raid 1004 try a few things and then see if they can keep up with the larger forces after pulling a few formation flying irregularities. He was most unhappy to find out that a squadron or two had secretly been developing a set of formation flying maneuvers on their own time. He was tired and decided “what the hell” on both suggestions.

The army and navy had promised to provide the additional needed supplies for the B17 and P51s and they had been damn good at supplying him with what he needed, so what the hell. This was the kind of seat of the pants decision they paid him to make and he made it with a couple of warnings.

“Do not under any circumstances divert my supplies to the Army. Two…if there are any midair collisions caused by this … formation flying gimmick, it will be terminated forthwith. And three … get that god damn plant out of this office!”

He stormed out of the room knowing that all three would be accomplished and went on the search for a new cigar to chew on or another major, which ever came by first.

According to his diary he was angry at Doolittle for putting his nose in where it didn’t belong. That jerk was 9 days from retiring when the Reds attacked. He was heading up the “Doolittle Board” or “Gripes Board” as some were calling it. Both names were appropriate in his mind. Imagine doing away with the off duty salute and letting enlisted personnel mingle socially with officers. You can’t democratize the military. What an ass. Well this war put an end to that. What’s next mustaches for God’s sake?

There was another reason he was in a bad mood. His officers had convinced him that the crews needed a day of rest. Two days in a row of 16 hour flights was too much. In the end he had seen their point. There was no element of surprise in this fight any more. Now it was a contest of stamina. Whom every blinked first would give the other guy the breathing room needed to recover and the Soviet supply line was much shorter than his. Hell supplying the 8th Air Force in England had been a piece of cake compared to this nightmare.

Who in the hell knows maybe this experiment could lead to something and maybe those extra bombers will take the load off his babies and let them do the job they were built for. It was ironic that the B-29 Superfortress was designed to fly fast and high yet it had spent most of its combat career flying low over Japan. That cursed wind was to blame. Why did God give them that wind? Even in this war he was regulated to keeping below 25,000 feet. Shit the B17 can do that. I guess that’s why Doolittle made the suggestion. He had to find a way to predict by at least a day where that God Damn wind was going to be. Maybe we send the B-17s in first and they can make some kind of measurements and the eggheads can devise some kind of forecast.


Maybe we have to become a more tactical air force like the Soviets and adapt from our strategic bombing role. The politicians are not going to sit idly by while we use the most costly weapons system for anything but strategic bombing. Those pinheads think we can just fly to Moscow whenever we want and put an end to this. Didn’t happen when we finally raided Berlin or Tokyo and burned them to the ground. They just kept on fighting until they had nothing to fight with. He had to admit that his beloved SAC was fast becoming the next shiny object to dangle in front of Stalin to distract him from what was to come. The real haymakers wouldn’t come until spring he was told.

The Report Card



REport And After action
of raid 1003 on the soviet oil facility at baku
Oct. 2nd 1946

USE OF Uncle Cat

It became apparent early in the B-29 bomber offensive against Baku that P-80 escort fighters flying from Turkey, Cyprus and Rhodes would be needed to counter the Soviet jet fighters among others. In order for the Shooting Stars to fly the long distance from Turkey and the islands and return safely, some kind of electronic navigation system would be needed to:

a. find the B-29’s they were escorting; and,

b. find their way back. A VHF beacon system would eliminate the problems associated with the MF beacons thus providing greater reliability and accuracy.

Beacons were established. It was used aboard B-29’s equipped with Uncle Cat transmitters specifically tasked with serving as navigation aircraft for the fighter escorts. This signal, when received on a fighter’s SCR-522 VHF communication set (equipped with an AN/ARA-8 homing adapter and MD-34 modulator keying unit), allowed the fighters to meet the bombers at a specific predetermined location in order to ensure maximum fuel efficiency. The Uncle Cat was an improved version of the Uncle Dog.

Pilot Fatigue


The flights were almost as long as in the Pacific and many a fighter pilot looked like an old man after climbing out of the cockpit and hitting the ground. A few had to be helped out because of cramps. It paid to be of small stature on these kinds of flights.

It became apparent that the perils of such long flights caused as many losses as the enemy. On the first two raids as many planes went down over enemy and Turkish territory from engine or battle damage as were shot down outright over the Baku area. This had the effect of doubling the loss rate from these missions.

Soviet Proximity Fuse Improvement


It was clear that the Soviet rockets now had a much better proximity fuse solution. Their rockets while still erratic, were now exploding at a far greater rate than before, when near a target. Previously more than half of the missiles that were able to reach the target without failure, passed harmlessly by and exploded above the intended target. It was observed on the last two raids that there was at least a 3 fold increase in the missile exploding at the proper altitude if it was able to get within a kill radius. It is speculated that some improvement had been made and is the most likely cause for this increase in accuracy.

A number of bombers had active jamming units scanning and three of these were shot down. We can only conclude that the current jammers are not accomplishing their task or the Soviets have developed a way to circumvent our capabilities in this area.

Conversely the anti-aircraft shells did seem to be effected by the jammer aircraft. It appears that the VVS is using a combination of proximity fused ammunition and conventionally fused shells. With half exploding a thousand feet from the jammer aircraft while others exploded in a manner that would suggest they were set for a certain altitude and fired in the general direction of the bombers.

The three fold improvement in the missile detonations is very troubling. We estimate that the bomber losses on the two raids launched to date were increased by a full 5% because of this addition or improvement of the Soviet proximity fuse technology.

Increase in Missile Launches


The VVS has increased the number of launches both from the ground and the air by a factor of 30% observed between the two raids. This 30% increase has happen in a 24 hour period. Some combination of factors has made this dramatic increase. Possibly a security leak forewarned the Stavka and they were able to marshal their missile forces faster than anticipated or the Soviet industry has increased their manufacturing process dramatically from earlier estimates.

The end result is close to a 7% increase in the bomber fleets losses and is unsustainable for no more than a period of 12 days at which time a temporary halt will have to be ordered due to lack of bomber replacements. Currently the supply of replacement bombers and crews is 47 a month. The number of units damaged beyond repair or lost has been 108 in two days of raids with fully 32 being shot down by what can only be called a guided missile, with the others succumbing to fighter aircraft either by cannon fire or ramming.

Bomber Losses


The loss rate is a sustainable 9% over two raids but with the increase in losses by missile fire this may not stay true. The fourth raid on the Baku area should give us a clearer picture as to the viability of launching multiple raids on the same target in the age of guided missiles.
Oil Production Losses

Overflight suggest that between a large bomb dispersion rate and the prevailing strong winds over the target that bombing from above 25,000 is not economical. After only on true bombing raid on Baku it is too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions. The circular error was calculated to be over 1500 ft.

With 24 hour repair operations we estimate a net 3% loss of oil production daily at the current rate. With Baku estimated to be a 30% capacity it will take 30 days to bring production to a halt. In the intervening time the other production facilities bombed by atomic bomb are being repaired at a rate of 7% a week. The Baku facility does represent 47% of the pre-attack oil production capacity of the Soviet Union.

At the damage rate, the Soviet oil production facilities will continue to increase and reach 80% capacity in 7 months despite the air campaign currently being waged.

Recommendations


Continue the Baku raids until the production levels are down to 10% with the caveat that weekly unit losses do not exceed 15%. If the weekly losses exceed 15% it is recommended that other oil production facilities in be targeted in a random rotation. If these raids experience a higher than 10% attrition rate then the strategic bombing campaign against these facilities should be suspended until improved tactics are developed.

Possible Tactical Improvement to be explored:


1 Improved anti-missile defenses


a. Dropping flares

i. If it is determined that heat seeking guidance is being used

b. Improved jammer capability

c. Physical destruction of missile by counter fire before they are in range of bombers

i. High rate of fire 50 cal or larger rounds at 1000 feet or more in a shot gun manner


2 Maneuver


a. Develop ways to defeat the missiles by maneuver

i. Bombers must stay in formation

ii. Bombers must stay at altitude

iii. Must reconstitute formation over target at time of release of bombs

iv. Avoid collisions

b. This may diminish the bombers ability to defend from fighter attack

c. Maneuver unit should be no less than squadron size